Even though the boys in Vegas are slating the Miami Heat as the team to beat in NBA Championship betting with +170 odds to win, the team that the sharps and the handicappers are relying on are the Los Angeles Lakers at +300. One thing about Miami’s number you have to keep in mind is that it’s not just based on the talent of LeBron, Dwyane and Bosh – it’s also based a little bit on fear and stupidity.

In general, the fear factor is that the Miami Heat are going to be as good as everyone thinks they can be this season. The stupidity factor enters when all the online betting fools rush to the NBA futures market to throw money at the Super Friends in South Beach. That has a nasty way of tilting any odds.

The problem with the online betting public backing the Heat to win the NBA title is the plain and simple fact that we haven’t seen them play together yet. We’ve seen the parts individually, but the sum of those parts has to be greater than the whole. I’m as convinced as anyone else that they can be great, but there’s no absolute proof of that. Right now, it’s all hearsay and speculation.

Betting on hunches is fun and all, but when you’re really invested in this and taking big swings with your money, you have to ride informed decisions because losing money isn’t fun. Nothing is more pertinent than the past three seasons in the NBA in terms of online betting trends. Chew on this:

Three Western Conference Championships, three first-place finishes in the West, three NBA Finals and two NBA Titles. That’s the resume of the Los Angeles Lakers over the past three years.

When these teams meet on Christmas Day, we’ll have a vague idea then if the Miami Heat are worth all the action they’re gathering in online betting.

My money is still on the Lakers. The proof, as they say, is in the pudding.

(And by “pudding” I mean “NBA titles”)